Assumptions:
1. Purple, not puple:
A solid Democratic or Republican state is one where the respective party holds 52% or more of the vote share.
2. Democratic voting patterns:
In a typical election, Democratic representatives will vote in line with their party's position approximately 95% of the time.
3. Republican voting patterns:
Similarly, Republican representatives will vote in accordance with their party's stance around 90% of the time.
4. Independent voters:
Among independent voters, it's important to consider the proportion that lean towards the Republican party and those who lean towards the Democratic party, as this can significantly impact election outcomes.
Predicted Data
The below table is our predictions for how the 2024 election will turn out. It all is up to 5 swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You can play with out model to change the result of these swing states in the Predictions Tab.
| State | State Delegates / Points | Harris Points | Trump Points | Tossup Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 55 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Delaware | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| District of Columbia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 29 | 0 | 29 | 0 |
| Georgia | 16 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kansas | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Maine | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Maryland | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Michigan | 16 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Montana | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nevada | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| New York | 29 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 18 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 38 | 0 | 38 | 0 |
| Utah | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Vermont | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| TOTALS | 233 | 232 | 73 |